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Global Change Research
is done with the
objective of revealing
to politics, industry
and society the causes
of the global pattern
changes observed and the
interactions involved,
the extent to which the
natural variability of
global environmental
phenomena is influenced
by humankind, the extent
to which changes can be
forecasted, and the
implications of these
changes for social
systems, in particular
with regard to the aim
of sustainable
development. Because
global environmental
changes alter the
current and future
living conditions of
people, there is and
increasing need to shift
this research towards
more direct practical
applications in order to
help provide answers to
the questions raised by
stakeholders and
decision-makers. As a
major contribution to
this, the German Federal
Ministry of Education
and Research (BMBF) has
launched the GLOWA
program¹
(Globalen wandel
des Wasserkreislauf
or Global Change of the
Water Cycle). GLOWA
focuses on the problem
of water availability.
The aim is to develop
simulation-tools and
instruments which will
allow to develop and to
realize strategies for
sustainable and
future-oriented water
management at a regional
level while taking into
account global
environmental changes
and the socio-economic
framework conditions.
Within GLOWA there are
five large cluster
projects. Two of them
are located in Germany
(Danube, Elbe), the
other are investigating
river catchment areas in
North and West Africa
(Drâa, Ouémé, Volta) as
well as in the Near East
(Jordan). Each of these
projects is tackling the
following scientific
core themes in an
interdisciplinary and
integrative research
approach:
-
Natural variability
of precipitation,
variations caused by
human activities and
their effect on the
hydrological circle;
-
Interactions between
the hydrological
circle, the
biosphere and land
use;
-
Water availability
and conflicting
water uses.
About GLOWA Jordan
River
GLOWA
Jordan River focuses on
one of the most critical
regions of current and
future water scarcity.
It is an
interdisciplinary
project that addresses
the vulnerability of
water resources in the
Jordan River catchment
under global change, as
a case study of eastern
Mediterranean
environments. An
integrated research
approach provides
scientific underpinning
for sustainable and
cooperative management
practices. The project
will also address
non-conventional methods
of water management,
such as desalination,
wastewater reuse and
water imports, as well
as their ecological and
socio-economic
implications. The
multitude of
stakeholders in the
basin calls for a
multilateral research
consortium of Israeli,
Palestinian, Jordanian
and German research
institutions. A modeling
framework is developed
to integrate data,
information and methods
from various
disciplines. A dialogue
with regional
stakeholders is held
both simultaneously
with the design
of research strategies
and methods, as well as
at a later stage when
synthesizing results,
for producing
information which is
relevant for water
management.
The main work packages
are: (1) global change,
(2) water resources, (3)
ecosystems, (4)
agriculture and (5)
integration and
stakeholder
participation. Extreme
events, such as severe
drought spells will
receive special
attention within these
work packages.
In order to get an
overall picture of the
research area, two
complementary projects
cover the scientific
tasks of the GLOWA
Jordan River project:
-
GLOWA Jordan River
Part 1, which mainly
works on the upper
catchment of the
Jordan River and
involves Germany and
Israel;
-
GLOWA Jordan River
Part 2, which
focuses on the lower
catchment of the
Jordan River and
involves Germany,
Palestine and
Jordan.
Long
term goals are joint
activities and the
integration of both
parts of the project, in
order to provide
scientific support for a
joint management of
water resources –
including transboundary
resources - in all parts
of the basin (including
outside regions that
receive water from the
basin).
The
Palestine Academy is a
scientific partner in
the GLOWA project. The
activities of Phase I
include identification
of the model domain,
identification of
land-use, identification
of the relevant spatial
resolution, and
identification of the
needed meteorological
data.
The
Palestine Academy
completed part of the
research on climate
change scenarios for the
region and its impact on
the water budget in the
Jordan River Basin (Work
Package I) in
cooperation with the
Potsdam Institute of
Climate Impact Research.
The overall objectives
of Work Package I are
the study of the
influence of global
climate change on the
regional climate and
specifically the change
in climate parameters of
the Jordan River
catchment area. Main
aims are:
-
To derive realistic
parameters,
describing regional
climate changes
interacting with the
Mediterranean
circulation.
-
To develop regional
high resolution
scenarios for
climate and land use
change required by
the other GLOWA-Part
2 working groups.
Specific emphasis is
given to the following
scientific questions:
-
Is high resolution
regional climate
modeling able to
reproduce the sharp
transition of
climate zones and
the spatial and
temporal climatic
variability in the
Jordan River Basin?
-
What is the expected
future climate
change and what is
its effect on
atmospheric water
balance?
-
What are the
uncertainties of
results with respect
to the different
driving scenarios?
Results are now being
analyzed in order to
build the future climate
change scenarios needed
by the other working
groups. Parts of the
results were presented
in a GLOWA stakeholder
workshop held in
Ramallah by GLOWA’s
national coordinating
institute, the
Palestinian Hydrology
Group (PHG), on 2
February 2005.
GLOWA – Jordan River II-
Phase II Climate Change
Modeling
The
partners' institutions
implement the second
phase of GLOWA-Jordan
River PALAST continued
the progress in working
on the climate change
scenarios. PALAST worked
in cooperation with PIK
using the STAR
statistical downscaling
model and running
simulation based on
ECHAM4.0 model run that
used SRES A1B-Scenario
for the domain chosen
that extends 29o -34o
and from 34o -36o
Latitude and Longitude
respectively on a 8km x
8km grid resolution. Two
runs were done for two
time slices, the first
with climate observation
parameters that covers
the period 1958 – 1996
using data from PIK
meteorological data bank
in order to develop the
trend needed for the
simulated time slice.
The second run simulates
the climate trend for
the time slice 2007 –
2045. The two sets of
data are:
-
Observation
climate data for the
time slice
1958-1996, which
include:
Simulation
climate data for
the time slice
2007-2045, which
include:
Access to results of
Phase II climate change
for the above mentioned
Data need Authorization
which can be granted by
sending an E-mail to
Palestine Academy for
Science and Technology
at
info@palestineacademy.org
Based on the
analysis of
the data
obtained,
the
simulation
indicated an
increase of
average
temperature
over the
simulation
period (2007
– 2045) that
reaches 0.75
oC (Figure 1
below). With
respect the
precipitation,
simulation
showed
expected
decrease in
rainfall
mainly in
the northern
part of the
domain.
Figure 2
showed the
observed
precipitation
distributed
and the
change
during the
course of
2007-2045.
Figure 1:
annual average
temperature for the
observation time
slice (1958-1996)
and temperature
changes for the
scenario A1B for the
time slice
(2007-2045)
Figure 2:
Annual average
precipitation for
the observation time
slice (1958-1996)
and changes in
precipitation for
the scenario A1B for
the time slice
(2007-2045)
More information
about Glowa-jordan
River:(
http://www.glowa-jordan-river.de/
)
Palestinian Research
Institutions in the
Field of Water and
Wastewater
Research in Palestine
in the Field of Water
and Wastewater
Hydrological
parameters for
Palestine/West Bank
(Gaza Strip under
construction)
Wells
Springs
Average Rainfall
Communities
¹For
more information, please
visit the GLOWA – Jordan
River Web Site at:
http://www.glowa-jordan-river.de. |
